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To the Frozen:
We Oregonians, and many of you in other states and countries*, are subject to renewed Covid-19 related restrictions. Oregon Governor Kate Brown is calling her set of orders a “freeze,” so we Oregonians are the Frozen. If you have had small children in the past decade or so, going through your head right now are some songs that are not unpleasant the first dozen times you hear them but are very unpleasant the 100th time you hear them. Let it go.
Covid-19 has radicalized us
Back in the late Winter or Spring, when I was writing about the first wave of Covid and related restrictions, someone signed up for the Roundup and emailed me that Covid had radicalized her. The message stuck with me because it takes a certain self-awareness often not held by radicals to realize you’ve been radicalized. It stuck with me too, because I think Covid has radicalized a lot of us.
Which brings me back to the freeze. When Covid first hit, at the beginning of this year, we didn’t really know much about the virus, how it was transmitted, what kids of activities or locations contributed most to spread, how deadly the disease is, and how to treat people who came down with it. Based upon those unknowns, a wide lockdown made sense to stave off the worst case scenario of hospitals getting overloaded.
Now, though, as we experience an alarming rise in cases and an increase in hospitalizations in some areas, including notably in Multnomah County, we have mounds of data regarding the virus and where it’s spread. The state actually publishes data on workplaces that have been the source of five or more cases (h/t to Roundup friend Roger Lee). There’s a lot of spread at prisons and food processing plants and not much at all at restaurants and retail stores.
And yet Kate Brown has frozen restaurants to in-person dining (which for many means they must close, temporarily or permanently) and restricted capacity at retail stores. The Oregon Restaurant and Lodging Association sent out a press release expressing its understandable puzzlement and frustration with the decision, pointing out that only 0.76% of workplace outbreaks in Oregon have occurred at restaurants.
ORLA rightly seeks an explanation from the Governor given the disparity between the state’s own data and analysis and the drastic decision to close down restaurants to in-person dining. Additionally, there are plenty of counties in Oregon where the numbers aren’t spiking like they have been in Mulnomah County – those small business owners and employees must be especially frustrated with the closure.
Which brings me back to radicalization. Covid has pushed a lot of people (and especially a lot of people who like to make their views known) into two camps. Camp one is the virus isn’t a big deal and any and all restrictions, including masking and other relatively low-cost measures, are illegitimate. Camp two is the virus is likely to kill us all if the most drastic measures are not taken. If you find yourself in either camp, just look at some of the social media comments when the Governor does something regarding Covid – they tend to be polar extremes.
I think most people are probably in the middle of the two camps. Having refused to allow most schools to reopen when cases were low, when most other states including Washington and California allowed more reopening, and now embarking on a second round of widespread business shutdowns, Governor Brown finds herself much closer to camp two than camp one.
We know enough now to be able to make value and data-driven judgments on policies located between the two extremes. Mask mandates probably make sense because most studies indicate masks help slow the spread, and they’re cheap and easy to use. Given the primary source of the recent spike, restricting private social gatherings probably makes sense too, in spite of the enforcement problems. But I honestly do not understand the rationale behind closing restaurants, which has a huge impact on small businesses, their employees, and the economy.
You won’t be surprised to learn that I talk to quite a few conservative types, many of whom from the beginning have been accusing Kate Brown of being a dictator. I never thought Brown a dictator, and still don’t (ask a North Korean what an actual dictatorship looks like), and I used to think she was operating in good faith when it came to the shutdown, just with different policy preferences and risk acceptance than me. Not so much anymore. The following data points indicate to me that her Covid policies are irrational:
1. Waiting to ease the Spring lockdown, despite near-zero case numbers, until President Trump announced that he would do it, then hurrying to ease them first.
2. Failing to allow most schools to reopen in the Fall in spite of copious evidence that schools are not a significant vector of transmission.
3. Failing to fully delay implementation of the Corporate Activities Tax, which is a tax that falls on businesses that don’t turn a profit, including businesses that have been closed due to the Governor’s own orders, to fund schools that are predominantly closed to in-person instruction.
4. Closing restaurants to in-person dining statewide despite the state’s own data demonstrating that restaurants, when open to in-person dining, were not a significant vector of transmission.
These four points have convinced me that Governor Brown is not actually basing her decisions, or at least many of her decisions on data (SCIENCE!) but in fact upon the pressure she receives from camp two, many of whom, I’ve noticed anecdotally, don’t work in affected businesses or often any business at all.
Occam’s razor holds that the simplest explanation for a phenomenon should be preferred. The simplest explanation from the items above is that Governor Brown is not particularly interested in keeping the private sector as open as possible, and as many people working as possible, consistent with public health. Simply put, based on the evidence, I can no longer assume that the Governor is working in good faith on this issue. Some of you are thinking, “What took you so long?” I guess I think it’s important that we not ascribe policy differences to bad faith easily, but we’re past that point now.
There, I guess I’ve been radicalized too.
*Someone’s been opening the Roundup in the Rift Valley of Kenya. If it’s not some server farm hack operation, I’d love to know that story. Drop me a line.
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Jeff Eager
jeff@oregonroundup.com
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